"Very Long Wait", "Long Wait" - The New Release New Norm

[Waba]

How many others are getting caught in Netflix's cost cutting measures and seeing new releases with "Very Long Wait" and "Long Wait" as their status? Outside of 'Speed Racer' and 'Journey to the Center of the Earth' I haven't received any popular (subject to interpretation). Currently I have:

'Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian'
'Wanted'
'WALL-E'
'Kung Fu Panda'
'The Happening'
'Tropic Thunder'
'Hancock'

I have a friend I converted to a Netflix fan who has pushed his discs down to just one "for old movies" since he can't get new releases in a timely manner.

I called customer service about the issue and they said they suspect this is because they have closed their used disc store.

Netflix loses much of its appeal if you can't get the movies you want is a timely fashion. Should they not have enough copies to satisfy their customers within a month? ('Kung Fu Panda' & 'Tropic Thunder') Isn't two months too long? ('The Happening').

I've giving this until after the holidays before I found my friend - if I don't just suspend my account all together.

[ewd76]

I got Horton on Tuesday. It's not that great. Most of the movie was added "humor" which largely detracted from the good doctor's actual words.

[Kraize]

I have been waiting for movies for 4+ months that are on long wait. On the other hand some movies like the happening, I Received right away. Even though some had it as long wait or short wait etc. I called CS and i was told that they really don't do new release movies. Thus the long waits. CS told me if i want new releases i have to go to Blockbuster. So does NF not want us to use there service? Do they want us to cancel our accounts?

[jeldobar]

they want you to cancel if you don't like the way their business works ... yes

[ColdOne]

If they don't have what the customer wants they just send him to Gimbels, I mean Blockbuster.

[Phaedrusnyc]

To everyone who's just repeating the same stuff about throttling high-volume users that has been repeated ad infinitum for years, I have a few more questions or comments. I was a very happy Netflix member- one of the earlier ones, actually- and a proselytizer for the service for several years until, about a year and a half ago, due to reasons of money and time, I quit the service (intending to eventually sign up again when the time was right.) Meanwhile, I was able to turn my parents on to the service a couple of years ago, and they have retained their membership. However, again for reasons of time and money, they decided that their needs were best served by the one movie at a time plan.

I'm visiting them for the holidays for a few weeks, and so my parents have added a bunch of movies to their queue that we might all enjoy (including new releases which they, as senior citizens, don't often get to see in the theaters.) At the moment, five of the seven films they have added are listed at Long Wait or Very Long Wait. Now, I understand the throttling measures, and the demands of scarcity, etc- but these are ONE-MOVIE-AT-A-TIME users, and not particularly speedy ones at that. In fact, since November 4th, they have received a grand total of SEVEN movies. My understanding was that the high-volume users (the people who are putting in less money for more movies) were being throttled in favor of those who were low-volume movies (who are, by definition, subsidizing the other members.) This is clearly not the case.

My question is, what exactly is the arcane method by which Netflix determines who "deserves" the new releases? I have not sent a message to customer service because I have already seen the types of responses that are returned. I can also say that, prior to my visit, my parents were asking me how they could suspend their membership since they, frankly, aren't seeing movies on Netflix that aren't already showing up on HBO. (Again, to the True Believers and Snarksters- these are senior citizens. Don't talk about how many non-new releases there are for them to choose from, because at 64 and 71, respectively, they've pretty much seen any "old" movie they've ever wanted to see.) I can also say that sering this- and seeing just how many people seem to be complaining about this- makes me wonder if it's worth my signing up again. (Ironically, my parents' birthday gift to me a month ago was that they intended to pay for six months of NEtflix service for me.)
Does anybody have any CONSTRUCTIVE advice for my parents other than telling them to throttle themselves even more than they already are? (I repeat- they've been averaging about one movie a week since June.)

[alpha309]

Did you ever stop to think that Netflix does not "save" movies for the low-volume users? Really what sense does it make to save Death Race just for your parents who may or may not return a movie that week. I am sure that they would get the NR if they sent the disc back on Fri-Sat like everyone else but frankly you answered your own question. In your own words your parents are not speedy and return just over a whopping ONE movie per week. Now you want NF to go ahead and predict your parents will return their last movie on the day after a new release comes out so that they get it?

Seriously, think about what you are typing. How likely is NF to have the brand new releases exactly when they come out. I know Netflix has my new release back by Wednesday, but how many people keep the big movies for a week before sending it back if not longer. That is where the delay is at. What your parents need to do is increase their speed and return movies on Friday. If they miss that then on Saturday, If they do that they get whichever new release they want. I am a high volume user and have no problems getting exactly what new release I want.

[Alan-Not So Nice Not So Helpful]

I know Netflix has my new release back by Wednesday, but how many people keep the big movies for a week before sending it back if not longer. That is where the delay is at.

I just wanted to echo this statement. I'm a perfect example of it. As a matter of fact, I still have The Dark Knight sitting unopened which I received on the Tuesday that it was released. As others have stated, the key to getting new releases is to have a disc returned on the Friday or Saturday before the Tuesday that said movie is to be released. After that time, it's a crapshoot as to when another movie will be available thus the long wait status. I'm willing to bet though that even if it states Long Wait for your parents, that if they happen to return their movie on the same day that someone returned the new release, I'm willing to wager that they will receive said new release.

[ColdOne]

How many people keep the big movies for a week before sending it back if not longer. That is where the delay is at.

This is a common fallacy. It would be true if those people only held on to new releases (and not other discs), but that is probably not the case. The formula for determining how many discs to buy takes this into account and people who are slow to return discs don't significantly slow down delivery for anyone else.

[alpha309]

I don't hold on to any discs for more than 2-3 days at most so I wouldn't know how other people are with their discs.

That said. Eagle Eye will probably be in pretty big demand on the 27th. Much more so than something like the Godfather. One is a much better movie with a much better following, guess which one. The likelihood that someone renting both movies and keeping it for over a week is the same, lets go ahead and pull a number out of a hat, 28%. Netflix likely has several idle copies of the Godfather lying around with fewer people clamoring to rent it. Eagle Eye will have in likelihood 0 idle copies and a "waiting list" for people to get it.

This makes that 28% of people that are keeping the discs at least a week that much more important. If everyone were to watch the day of arrival or next day and have it in the mail the following day demand would be met much more quickly and wait times would be reduced. Now, as you stated, I am sure that this is taken into the formula that they use to calculate the purchase orders, but it still creates a delay on initial renters. I would assume that Netflix is more worried about long term costs than they are short term. Do they want 10,000 extra discs of Eagle Eye in their warehouses 3 years from now when no one wants it or would they rather have 100,000 customers have some sort of wait for their rental of Eagle Eye. I personally would go with the 100,00 customers waiting instead of the cost to buy those extra 10,000 discs and then have to pay for storage or disposal of them when no one wants them.

And it appears as if my argument strayed a bit.

[ColdOne]

The problem is that when you return Eagle Eye, you're then going to receive The Duchess or another disc that has a wait. So you're tying up just as much new release time, but you're costing Netflix more because of the extra postage, handling and wear-and-tear.

So a more useful metric might be the percentage of disc days that a member holds an in-demand title. If we both are on a 1 out plan and get only one new release per month and I hold it for 5 days and you hold it for 1 then I'm tying up new releases about twice as much as you are. But that is a big assumption, there is no reason to believe that high-turnover members would have a lower ratio of new releases (if Netflix did not give them lower priority).

All of that is irrelevant to the question, however. The wait you see is primarily dependent on you and how much you are willing to pay, that is why the prioritization system works so well. If all the low-turnover members (those holding Eagle Eye for a week) moved to Blockbuster do you really think your wait times would be less? Absolutely not. If anything, keeping those high profit customers happy ensures Netflix buys extra discs that will eventually get to you sooner.

[ColdOne]

Let's say there are 100 customers who want a particular disc - 70 are high-turnover (2/wk) and 30 are low-turnover (1/wk). If Netflix buys 10 discs it will take 3 weeks to get through high-turnover members and 3.5 weeks for the low-turnover members.

However, Netflix gets twice as much profit (if not more) from those low-turnover members, so if they were eliminated then Netflix could only afford to buy 5 discs which would end up taking longer (7 weeks) to get through all users.

If instead Netflix prioritized high-turnover members for new releases then many low-turnover customers would leave, thus reducing their profit margin (and again reducing the ratio of discs/customer). High-turnover customers are less likely to leave because they are already getting tremendous value and if they do leave it doesn't hurt Netflix's profit significantly (if at all).

Of course the numbers I provided are just estimates, you can plug whatever numbers you like to try to understand the model. But the point is that Netflix does know the real numbers and they've chosen their prioritization algorithm using those numbers (which reinforces my take on this and not yours).

[alpha309]

I think we are arguing with each other the exact same thing, only coming up with different results that come from our assumptions. We are just disagreeing on the impact that someone holding on to a movie has.

That said, I won't get either Eagle Eye or The Duchess as I will be home for the holidays and in a different state. I will instead have to wait for Pineapple Express, The Wackness, and Righteous Kill. Eagle Eye and The Duchess will go the the "wait section" of my queue and remain there until they have a now availability while older, foreign, or documentaries will take their place.